回复 1# farshine
Alcoa Cuts Capacity, Shares Follow Suit Ahead of Earnings
Call volume on AA approached peak levels ahead of the announcement
by Karee Venema (kvenema@sir-inc.com) 1/6/2012 11:30 AM
Hoping to reduce the impact of falling metal prices and higher costs, aluminum giant Alcoa Inc. (AA - 9.10) last night announced it will cut global smelting production by 12%, including permanent closures at its Alcoa, Tenn.-based plant and two of its Rockdale, Texas-based plants. The initial closings will decrease AA's annual output by approximately 291,000 metric tons, with an additional 240,000 metric tons of reductions on the horizon.
With AA on tap to report fourth-quarter earnings on Monday, the company will take a restructuring charge in the current quarter of roughly $155 million to $165 million, or 15 cents to 16 cents per share, due to the cutbacks -- prompting Citi to forecast that AA will likely record its first loss since 2009.
Wall Street is not taking kindly to the news, with AA trading more than 2% lower in today's session, cutting into its 8.2% weekly gain. The stock is coming off a rough one, with its 2011 plummet earning it the honor of being the second-worst Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) performer of the year. Although AA has experienced a recent price rally, the security continues to meet resistance at its descending 50-day moving average -- a trendline that steadily pushed AA lower in the latter half of 2011.
AA price chart
Despite AA's shaky fundamental and technical backdrops, sentiment surrounding the equity has been mixed. Zacks reports that eight analysts maintain a "buy" or better recommendation toward the stock, compared to nine "hold" or worse suggestions.
Elsewhere, however, AA's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.70 ranks in the 28th percentile of its annual range, showing that short-term speculators are more bullishly aligned than usual toward the stock.
Echoing this optimistic outlook, over the course of the past 50 trading days, investors on the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) have bought to open nearly four calls for every one put. Furthermore, this ratio ranks just one percentage point from a 52-week peak -- indicating that bullish bets are being scooped up over bearish ones at a near annual-high clip.
Delving a little deeper, this recent uptick in call volume may simply be investors outside of the options arena hedging their pessimistic positions. Short interest has risen 5.7% in the past month, and now accounts for a healthy 5.4% of the stock's available float.
From a contrarian perspective, the stock may continue to struggle in its price direction. With short interest at lofty levels, and a possible fourth-quarter loss looming overhead, more bearish bettors may be encouraged to jump on board. |
发表于 2012-1-6 21:20
|