沁颍

2/11/2015

Tuesday saw massive gains in stocks as investors sought out domestic shares. The rally was sparked by rumors that the Euro-zone would give a six month extension to Greece on its bailout package. Despite Germany squashing this rumor, stocks continued to rally. This morning, U.S. stock futures (/ES) are slightly lower ahead of the opening bell. Focus may once again be on Greece as its creditors are meeting to discuss the newly elected governments demands. Option volatility took a hit yesterday as stocks rallied into the close. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell 7% and is sitting right at its 50-day moving average. Volatility remains firm even with stocks only 1% below all-time highs.



Treasuries are slightly higher in tandem with most global bond markets today. The 10-year yield is down to 1.98% after moving above 2% yesterday for the first time in a month. Overseas, equities are in the red as risk appetite is cautious heading into the Euro-zone meeting on Greece. In the U.S. today the $24 B 10-year auction will dominate the focus at noon CT. The economic slate is light with just the January Treasury budget and oil inventories. The MBA reported mortgage applications dove 9.0% in the week ended February 6 despite the fall in rates. There are a number of earnings reports that will be of interest, including Baidu (BIDU), Cisco Systems (CSCO) and Tesla (TSLA).



Stock Stories:

Pepsico (PEP) –Doritos are great! – The snack food/beverage giant reported better than expected quarterly results this morning. Although the soft drink segment is weakening, the snack food sector continues to grow. The shares are up over 3% ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

7:00 am CT – Fed’s Fisher Speaks

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 10-year Note Auction Results

1:00 pm CT – Treasury Budget



Notable Earnings:   

Wednesday – 2/11:

Before Market:  AOL, ARMH, FSRV, LO, MDLZ, MOS, OC, PEP, TWX, ZTS

After Market:  AMAT, BIDU, CTL, CAKE, CSCO, FEYE, MET, NTAP, NVDA, PNRA, TSLA, TSO, TRIP, Z



Thursday – 2/12:

Before Market:  AAP, ANR, APA, AVP, CS, DPS, IFF, JAH, SNI

After Market:  BYD, CBS, GRPN, KRFT, SFLY, SON, TIME, WWE

沁颍

2/12/2015

Stocks were choppy on hump day and continued to ride the rollercoaster after the close and overnight. A late spike higher after the close on a rumored deal with Greece and the Euro-zone was quickly quashed as stocks fell throughout the night. This morning, U.S. stock futures (/ES) are sharply higher ahead of the opening bell as a proposed cease-fire with Russia in eastern Ukraine was announced. Markets continue to be driven by geopolitical news and rumors so the chop may continue. Option volatility reflected the moves in equities as it was relatively flat throughout Wednesday’s session. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) should be under pressure today as stocks build upside momentum.



Bonds are taking their cue from the rise in stocks as they are sharply lower. The risk on trade has been in favor the last week and will continue today. The 10-year yield is back above 2% as optimism over an earlier rate hike is growing. Overseas, equities are also higher in both Asia and in Europe on the cease-fire deal. The outlier was the UK after the Bank of England predicted a faster pace of inflation, which may suggest earlier and more rate hikes than were priced in. In the U.S. today the Retail Sales and Weekly Jobless Claims will be in focus. There will also be an important 30-year Bond auction at noon CT.  



Stock Stories:

Tesla (TSLA) –Stalled – The electric car maker posted a big miss on its earnings call yesterday after the close. Analysts are piling on the downgrades this morning as growth stalls. The shares are taking a beating down 8% ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – Weekly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT – Retail Sales

9:00 am CT – Business Inventories

9:30 am CT – Natural gas Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 30-year Bond Auction Results



Notable Earnings:   

Thursday – 2/12:

Before Market:  AAP, ANR, APA, AVP, CS, DPS, IFF, JAH, SNI

After Market:  BYD, CBS, GRPN, KRFT, SFLY, SON, TIME, WWE



Friday – 2/13:

Before Market:  DTE, EXC, SJM, TRW, VF

After Market:  N/A

沁颍

2/13/2015

Stocks took another big leap up yesterday as investors shook off a downbeat Retail Sales number. The data showed that the ‘tax break’ due to lower gas prices has not equated into more consumer spending, which is a big concern going forward. This morning, U.S. stock futures (/ES) are slightly higher as the rally looks to continue. Most major indices are just below all-time highs again and we could see these levels taken out today. We have seen recent weakness on Friday’s in 2015 as trader’s take off some risk going into the weekends. Option volatility reflected the moves in equities as it was lower throughout yesterday’s session. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is still higher compared to the last time equites were at these levels so that is something to watch.



Treasuries are a lower, in conjunction with weakness in overseas bonds, albeit in light volume. The 10-year yield has risen to 2.01%, but remains inside recent ranges. Stocks around the world are in the green after a better than expected Euro-zone and German GDP numbers and following optimism over Ukraine and Greek issues. Additionally, crude oil has climbed above $52 a barrel despite huge inventories. Today's U.S. data includes trade prices and preliminary consumer sentiment for February. Dallas Fed Fisher speaks again on monetary policy, and is likely to reprise his comments from earlier this week.



Stock Stories:

Apple (AAPL) –The fruit of everyone’s eye – The tech product- maker settled at an all-time high as analyst upgrades and activist investors continue to pile on the ‘Buy’ recommendations. Optimism on the upcoming iWatch is positive heading into spring. The shares are up again this morning ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – Import & Export Prices

9:00 am CT – Consumer Sentiment



Notable Earnings:   

Friday – 2/13:

Before Market:  DTE, EXC, SJM, TRW, VF

After Market:  N/A



Tuesday – 2/17:

Before Market:  GT, MDT, MGM, PES, WLT, WM

After Market:  A, ADI, CF, FOSL, JACK, LZB, NBR, PBPB, RAX, VNO

沁颍

February 14, 2015



This past week, the Dow Industrials ($DJI) moved back above $18K for the first time since the end of 2014. Investors ignored downbeat economic data and sent small caps and the benchmark S&P 500 to another round of all-time highs. This is second week of solid gains and markets are back to ignoring warning signs and moving into riskier stocks. Oil stabilized early in the week and ended up solidly this week. Poor retail sales data and a missed consumer confidence number did nothing to derail the rally. The situation in the Ukraine stabilized on the cease-fire news and a solution to the Greece debt issues may be coming to an end. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) finished the week up 2% and the Blue Chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average’s ($DJI) jumped a modest 1%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (QQQ) led the gains up 3.6% and the small caps (RUT, IWM) rose 1.4%. All four major indices are now positive for the year.



With equities up on the week, Option volatility took another hit last week. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell another 15% and dropped below support at its 50-day moving average. The ‘Fear Gauge’ is now back to its 200-day moving average near $14.70. Although the U.S. stocks are at all-time highs, there are cracks according to the option markets. The open interest in Put/Call ratio is at elevated levels. This may be forecasting a sharp soon or high nervousness for equities.  



Treasury yields were up modestly this past week as the positive move in stocks in the had investors moving to ‘Risk-On’ mode. The 10-year yield settled above 2% for the first time since the beginning of the year. Interest Rates and Inflation remain low but P/E valuations are getting stretched but markets continue to surge.  Higher Oil (/CL) prices also helped stocks and put pressure on Bonds prices which in turn causes yields to move higher.  Crude finished up slightly for the week and are now firmly above $50 a barrel.



Although this upcoming week is relatively modest on economic data, they are some key reports due. Housing numbers are out on Tuesday and Wednesday to start the week.  The first read on inflation is also due with the release of the PPI on Wednesday. The main focus may be the FOMC minutes on Wednesday afternoon, which will provide some insight on potential Interest Rate increases. There will be more talks on the debt assistance to Greece on Monday which could provide markets with some volatility this week. U.S. Markets are closed on Monday for the President’s Day holiday.


Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

Monday:

A.M. – Markets

P.M. –Closed



Tuesday:

A.M. – GT, MDT, MGM, PES, USAT, WLT, WWW

P.M.– A, ADI, CF, FLS, FOSL, JACK, LZB, NBR, PBPBRAX, TEX



Wednesday:

A.M. –  ANGI, CNK, DVN, DUK, GRMN, HLT, NI

P.M. – ACT, CAR, DRYS, EOG, FLR, MRO, MAR, SCTY, SUN, Z



Thursday:

A.M. – BCC, DAN, DTV, DISH, GG, HRL, IMAX, PCLN, WMT

P.M. – BRCD, CROX, FTR, INTU, JWN, MRVL, NEM, TSR



Friday:

A.M. –DE, IRM



Economic Releases (2/16 – 2/20):

Monday:

None – U.S. Markets Closed

                                                                                                                                                                              

Tuesday:

7:30 am CT – Empire State Mfg. Survey

9:00 am CT– Housing Market Index

11:45 am CT – Fed’s Plosser Speaks

3:00 pm CT – Treasury Intl. Capital

                                                                                                                                                                                                         

Wednesday:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

7:30 am CT – Housing Starts

7:30 am CT – PPI

8:15 am CT – Industrial Production

1:00 pm CT – FOMC Minutes



Thursday:

7:30 am CT – Weekly Jobless Claims

8:45 am CT – PMI Mfg. Index - Flash

9:00 am CT – Philly Fed Survey

9:00 am CT – Leading Economic Indicators

9:30 am CT – Natural gas Inventories

10:00 am CT – Oil Inventories

                                                                                                                                                                                                   

Friday:

9:00 am CT – Atlanta Fed Business Expectations

沁颍

2/17/2015

The benchmark S&P 500 (SPX) settled at all-time highs on Friday as positive optimism grows despite geopolitical risks. U.S. equity futures (/ES) are mixed but off their lowest levels from overnight. The talks over Greece’s bailout broke down yesterday. Athens has until Friday to reach a deal with its euro-zone partners. Investors are making their way back from the holiday weekend, but winter storms around the country have slowed down their return, especially in the Northeast. On the continued rise in stocks, volatility fell throughout Friday’s session. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is below $15 and has trended lower over the week on the rally.



Global markets are mixed as the U.S. reopens from the long holiday weekend. There were small gains in core European bonds and a rally in Asian sovereigns. Concerns over Greece after Euro-group talks stalled prompted some safe haven buying, but gains have been pared. Meanwhile, solid German data saw equities climb which helped the U.S. markets. Traders will keep one eye on overseas action today, but will be turning attention to the late January FOMC minutes (Wednesday) for direction this week. Today's data calendar includes production and housing reports with the February Empire State index, the February NAHB housing market index, along with December Treasury International Capital flows.



Stock Stories:

Twitter (TWTR) –Stretched? – The social media company has continued to out-perform in the sector. Facebook (FB) shares have stabilized but Twitter has risen despite a mediocre growth story.  The shares are off slightly this morning and are now over 14% above its 200-day moving average.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – Empire State Mfg. Survey

9:00 am CT– Housing Market Index

11:45 am CT – Fed’s Plosser Speaks

3:00 pm CT – Treasury Intl. Capital



Notable Earnings:   

Tuesday – 2/17:

Before Market:  GT, MDT, MGM, PES, WLT, WM

After Market:  A, ADI, CF, FOSL, JACK, LZB, NBR, PBPB, RAX, VNO



Wednesday – 2/18:

Before Market:  ANGI, CNK, DVN, DUK, GRMN, HLT, NI

After Market:  ACT, CAR, DRYS, EOG, FLR, MRO, MAR, SCTY, SUN, Z

沁颍

2/18/2015

Stocks were quiet to begin the Holiday-shortened week yesterday but the S&P 500 Index (SPX) settled at another all-time high. Despite Greece walking away from discussions with the Euro-group, stocks continue to rise. This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are mixed and seem to be waiting for news to move. There is optimism that Greece and euro-zone leaders will reach a compromise that will enable Greece's bailout to continue. Any geopolitical announcement or U.S. data should drive markets in today’s session. Despite the slight rise in stocks on Tuesday, volatility rose sharply during session. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose 7% but was mainly higher as it was the last day to trade the Feb contract so the rise may be skewed.  



Treasuries are relatively flat in light trading with many Asian markets closing for New Year and Golden Week holidays. The 10-year yield has risen to 2.15% and has trended higher since the start of the month. Overseas sovereigns declined amid hopes Greece will ask for a loan extension by the end of the week, suggesting the government might accept a bailout (which isn't the same thing). Attention is also turning to today's January 27, 28 FOMC minutes, which will be released this afternoon. Many in the markets are looking for a more upbeat assessment in general. There is also Chair Yellen's Monetary Policy Report next week and trader's will look for clues if the word "patient" is removed at the March 17, 18 FOMC meeting. The end would be to keep a June rate hike on the table. Today's data includes January housing starts, January industrial production and January PPI. The MBA reported mortgage applications dropped another 13.2% in the week ended February 13.



Stock Stories:

Exxon Mobil (XOM) –Still stretched? – The energy giant is down only 11% as oil has fallen 50% in the same time frame since July 2014. Although the company is diversified, we should see the price of crude severely affect XOM’s bottom line. Warren Buffet dumped his entire stake in the company last quarter and we may see the shares under continued pressure if crude prices remain at current levels or lower.  



Major Economic Reports:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications – 13.2% drop

7:30 am CT – Housing Starts

7:30 am CT – PPI

8:15 am CT – Industrial Production

1:00 pm CT – FOMC Minutes



Notable Earnings:   

Wednesday – 2/18:

Before Market:  ANGI, CNK, DVN, DUK, GRMN, HLT, NI

After Market:  ACT, CAR, DRYS, EOG, FLR, MRO, MAR, SCTY, SUN, Z



Thursday – 2/19:

Before Market:  BCC, DAN, DTV, DISH, GG, HRL, IMAX, PCLN, WMT

After Market:BRCD, CROX, FTR, INTU, JWN, MRVL, NEM, TSR

沁颍

2/19/2015

Stocks were quiet yesterday as the S&P 500 Index (SPX) traded in a tight range. According to reports, Greece formally submitted its request for a six month extension of its loans from the euro-zone today. The euro-zone's finance ministers are expected to meet tomorrow to consider the request from Athens, which made major concessions. In its extension request, the new Greek government made clear it would not accept the austerity requirements agreed to by previous regimes. Despite the request, Germany reportedly stated that the six-month loan extension is not "a substantial proposal' for a solution. This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are mixed again as they look for direction. The FOMC released the minutes from January’s meeting on Wednesday and the consensus looked to favor more dovish action on interest rates this year. They remain data dependent and gave hints that patience on rates may be warranted. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) traded relatively flat during the session as it reflected the range-bound trading in stocks.  



After the close last night, the American Petroleum Institute reported that crude inventories rose much more than expected, leading to a sharp decline in oil prices (/CL) this morning. The weekly Department of Energy crude report is due out at 10:00 am CT. Treasuries are slightly lower with many Asian markets closed for New Year and Golden Week holidays. The 10-year yield pulled back to 2.06% yesterday as Bonds rose after the FOMC meeting but are up modestly this morning. Today's data includes Weekly Jobless Claims, the PMI Manufacturing Index and energy inventories. The markets will continue to react to news out of the Euro-Zone but still look to be on a higher trend.



Stock Stories:

Priceline (PCLN) –Bidding up – The online travel site posted better than expected earnings this morning as they beat expectations on the top and bottom lines. The company authorized a larger stock buy-back program despite a slight pull-back in guidance in Q1. The shares are up 7% ahead of the opening bell.  



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – Weekly Jobless Claims

8:45 am CT – PMI Mfg. Index - Flash

9:00 am CT – Philly Fed Survey

9:00 am CT – Leading Economic Indicators

9:30 am CT – Natural gas Inventories

10:00 am CT – Oil Inventories



Notable Earnings:   

Thursday – 2/19:

Before Market:  BCC, DAN, DTV, DISH, GG, HRL, IMAX, PCLN, WMT

After Market:  BRCD, CROX, FTR, INTU, JWN, MRVL, NEM, TSR



Friday – 2/20:

Before Market:  DE, IRM

After Market: N/A

沁颍

2/20/2015
Dismal volume and no catalysts led to stocks trading in a tight range on Thursday. This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are slightly lower as they look for direction. Despite Greece's fast approaching day of reckoning, global equities have remained firm. The country is running out of money, and many analysts are convinced that Athens could be on its way out of the euro-zone. The euro-zone's finance ministers will meet today to discuss Greece’s latest proposal to extend its loans. There will be little else for investors to focus on, as little economic data is slated to be released, and earnings season is essentially over. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) traded in lock step with equities and saw little movement. It feels as if the markets are setting up for a significant move but direction is a coin flip at this point.  



Treasuries are firmer, in tandem with most global bonds, amid worries over "Grexit." The 10-year Treasury yield has dipped back to 2.08%. Trading volume was thinned by the New Year & Golden Week holidays in Asia. The main news overnight was a Magazine report that ECB officials are preparing for a Greek exit. Gold has traded higher, while Dollar (/DX) continues to rally. Greece will remain the immediate focus, but attention will be turning to Fed Chair Yellen's Monetary Policy Report on Tuesday and what she might indicate over the Fed's policy path. There's little on today's calendar to distract with just the flash Manufacturing PMI for February.



Stock Stories:

Deere & Co. (DE) –Bulldozed – The heavy machinery manufacturer posted better than expected quarterly results this morning, albeit on lowered estimates. Despite an endorsement from Buffet, the company once again lowered guidance moving forward. The shares are down slightly ahead of the opening bell.  



Major Economic Reports:

8:45 am CT – PMI Mfg. Index - Flash

9:00 am CT – Atlanta Fed Business Expectations



Notable Earnings:   

Friday – 2/20:

Before Market:  DE, IRM

After Market:  N/A



Monday – 2/23:

Before Market:  AU, CTB, DISH

After Market: AGU, ESRX, THC, VVUS

沁颍

February 22, 2015

This past week was the quietest on Wall Street since the start of the year. Volumes were light in most sessions despite the geopolitical news and February expiration cycle. Stocks finished the week with modest gains as a deal for Greece to remain in the Euro-Zone kept equities moving higher. Investors ignored most economic data and sent small caps and the benchmark S&P 500 to another round of all-time highs. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) finished the week up 0.6% and the Blue Chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average’s ($DJI) rose a modest 0.7%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (QQQ) led the gains up 1.3% and the small caps (RUT, IWM) rose 0.7%. All four major indices are up modestly for the year with the tech sector leading the charge mainly on the back of Apple (AAPL).



With equities up only moderately for the week, Option volatility only fell slightly. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell another 2.6% and dropped below support at its 200-day moving average. The ‘Fear Gauge’ is low but still above levels from last year when stocks were at all-time highs. Treasury yields firmed up this past week as more upside in stocks in the had investors continuing the migration to ‘Risk-On’ mode.  Oil futures (/CL) continued to fall on supply concerns.  The two biggest daily moves were Wednesday and Friday.  The price of crude fell sharply Wednesday on anticipation of the one day delayed (due to the Monday holiday) government report on supply that was expected to hit a record high. As expected, Thursday's report showed an 80-year high for inventories of crude.



Consumer sector news was favorable with a drop in initial jobless claims.  But housing and industrial production are sluggish.  Meanwhile, inflation is low and the Fed appears to be inclined to keep policy rates low. The upcoming week is full of economic data and a final push on some key corporate results. Housing has been mixed and winter months have sizeable seasonal factors.  Traders will be watching for news on existing home sales, new home sales, and pending home sales.  New price data will post for Case-Shiller and FHFA.  Manufacturing also has been soft and the durables report on Wednesday will garner attention.  The Fed is balancing the labor market with inflation data.  So, this week's CPI report could affect Fed decision making.  Second revision to fourth quarter GDP growth will also be posted. Fed Chair Yellen is also due to give her semi-annual monetary policy testimony to Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday.


Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

Monday:

A.M. – AU, CTB, DISH

P.M. –AGU, ESRX, THC, VVUS



Tuesday:

A.M. – AMT, BMO, CMCSA, DPZ, DYN, HD, KATE, M, ODP, SPWR, TOL, VRX, VAL

P.M.– CLR, CLGX, FSLR, HPQ, PZZA, SINA, WBMD



Wednesday:

A.M. –  CPB, CHK, DLTR, LOW, SODA, TGT, TJX

P.M. – CRM, DRYS, LB, RIG, TIVO, WDAY



Thursday:

A.M. – BUD, DDD, GOGO, KSS, RBS, SHLD, TWI, TD

P.M. – CROX, GPS, HLF, JCP, ROST, SWN, YOKU



Friday:

A.M. –N/A



Economic Releases (2/23 – 2/27):

Monday:

7:30 am CT – Chicago Fed Activity Index

8:45 am CT– PMI Services Flash

9:00 am CT – Existing Home Sales

9:30 am CT – Dallas Fed Mfg. Survey

                                                                                                                                                                              

Tuesday:

8:00 am CT – S&P Case-Shiller HPI

9:00 am CT– Consumer Confidence

9:00 am CT – Fed’s Yellen Speaks

9:00 am CT – Richmond Fed Mfg. Index

12:00 pm CT – 2-Year Note Auction Results

                                                                                                                                                                                                        

Wednesday:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

9:00 am CT – New Home Sales

9:00 am CT – Fed’s Yellen Speaks

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 5-Year Note Auction Results



Thursday:

7:30 am CT – Weekly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT – Consumer Price Index

7:30 am CT – Durable Goods Orders

8:00 am CT – FHFA House Price Index

9:30 am CT – Natural gas Inventories

11:40 am CT – Fed’s Lockhart Speaks

12:00 pm CT – 7-Year Note Auction Results

                                                                                                                                                                                                   

Friday:

7:30 am CT – GDP

8:45 am CT– Chicago PMI

9:00 am CT – Consumer Sentiment

9:00 am CT – Pending Home Sales Index

Fed’s Dudley Speaks

Fed’s Mester Speaks

Fed’s Fischer Speaks

沁颍

2/23/2015

The benchmark S&P 500 Index (SPX) settled at another all-time high on Friday and the tech-heavy Nasdaq  (NDX) is approaching 5000. This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are slightly lower at the start of the week.  The California dock worker’s strike appears to have been settled, potentially saving the U.S. economy $2B per day. In another positive development, Euro-zone finance ministers and Greek officials reached an agreement on a short-term bailout deal last Friday. Although there are mixed economic reports and geopolitical concerns, stocks remain elevated and option volatility is at low levels. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is near the $14 level but could see a bid this week with plenty of market-moving news due, including testimony from Yellen on Tuesday and Wednesday.  



Treasuries are moving higher after paring overnight declines. Core sovereigns overseas are weak but are also off their lows. The 10-year Treasury yield is at 2.11% and have trended higher over the last two weeks despite the Fed signaling patience.  Despite Friday's agreement to extend Greece's bailout, Germany has yet to receive the list of reforms from Greece. Also, Germany's Business Climate Index missed, rising less than expected. U.S. equity futures are modestly lower, against the grain of small gains in Europe and Asia. Attention is turning to Fed Chair Yellen's Humphrey Hawkins testimony and whether she will hint at a mid-year rate hike. Today's releases include January existing home sales, the flash services PMI for February and the February Dallas Fed PMI. The Treasury also starts $90 B in auctions tomorrow.



Stock Stories:

Boeing (BA) –Cat Fight! – The aircraft-maker received an analyst upgrade on Friday which sent shares up 3% to all-time highs. The company and the aerospace sector received a massive downgrade today so the analyst battle is on. The shares are down over 1.5% ahead of the opening bell.  



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – Chicago Fed Activity Index

8:45 am CT– PMI Services Flash

9:00 am CT – Existing Home Sales

9:30 am CT – Dallas Fed Mfg. Survey



Notable Earnings:   

Modnday – 2/23:

Before Market:  AU, CTB, DISH

After Market:  AGU, ESRX, THC, VVUS



Tuesday – 2/24:

Before Market: AMT, BMO, CMCSA, DPZ, DYN, HD, KATE, M, ODP, SPWR, TOL, VRX, VAL

After Market: CLR, CLGX, FSLR, HPQ, PZZA, SINA, WBMD

沁颍

2/24/2015

We saw another day of little action to start the week. Housing numbers were weaker than expected and Oil (/CL) fell sharply but investors ignored the news and we finished the day essentially flat. This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are flat again as traders look for direction. Traders will watch more Housing data today but the main focus will be on Fed Chair Yellen’s testimony to Congress over the next two days.  Investors will watch for any hawkish tone to her statements as employment and growth seems to warrant higher interest rates. Some say she could surprise investors by keeping alive the possibility of a June rate hike, even though the minutes of the most recent Federal Reserve meeting showed a dovish tone. She also could provide some additional volatility to the markets which has been muted recently.  



Bonds are a little lower, in tandem with modest losses in core European sovereigns as Greece is close to finalizing its bailout extension. The 10-year Treasury yield has edged up to 2.07%. Trading was rather restrained, however, as the market awaits Fed Chair Yellen's testimony. There wasn't much news overnight. Japanese services PPI fell 0.5% in January, while Euro-zone data was as expected, with German Q4 GDP at 0.7%. Attention will be squarely focused on Yellen today and what she might suggest about the policy path. Today's data on February consumer confidence, the December Case-Shiller home price index and weekly chain store sales will be overlooked. The Treasury is auctioning $26 B in 2-year notes, kicking off $90 B in 2-, 5-, and 7-year note offerings over the next three days.



Stock Stories:

Home Depot (HD) –Cleaning up – The home improvement retailer posted another blow-out quarter this morning on its earnings call. Better than expected EPS and Revenue showed continued strong growth as the stock sits at all-time highs. The shares are up 3.5% ahead of the opening bell, which is slightly more than the option market was pricing in.  



Major Economic Reports:

8:00 am CT – S&P Case-Shiller HPI

9:00 am CT– Consumer Confidence

9:00 am CT – Fed’s Yellen Speaks

9:00 am CT – Richmond Fed Mfg. Index

12:00 pm CT – 2-Year Note Auction Results



Notable Earnings:   

Tuesday – 2/24:

Before Market:  AMT, BMO, CMCSA, DPZ, DYN, HD, KATE, M, ODP, SPWR, TOL, VRX, VAL

After Market:  CLR, CLGX, FSLR, HPQ, PZZA, SINA, WBMD



Wednesday – 2/25:

Before Market:  CPB, CHK, DLTR, LOW, SODA, TGT, TJX

After Market: CRM, DRYS, LB, RIG, TIVO, WDAY

沁颍

2/25/2015

The Benchmark S&P 500 index (SPX) and the small cap sector (RUT, IWM) rose to another round of all-time highs yesterday. Testimony from Fed Chair Yellen yesterday reiterated that the Fed would take a patient approach to raising interest rates. This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are slightly lower as traders look for a catalyst to bring back movement and volumes. Traders will watch more Housing data today but the main focus will be on Fed Chair Yellen’s second day of testimony to the House.  Option volatility sank as stocks ground higher. The low volume totals are showing that the rally is not fully supported but the trend is higher. The CBOE Volatility index (VIX) settled below $14 for the first time since the beginning of December.   



Treasuries are little changed to slightly higher on follow-through from Yellen's testimony yesterday. The 10-year yield has dipped to 1.97% and a close here would be the lowest since the first week of February. Bonds rallied sharply on Tuesday with the thought that rates will remain lower and the hike won’t come until after the summer. Global bonds are higher as well this morning and Germany sold 5-year notes at a negative yield of -0.08%. Stocks are mostly lower even after China's manufacturing PMI beat expectations as growth worries remain. There's also concern Greece will not be able to meet its obligations. The markets will focus on Yellen's House testimony today, though analysts doubt she will change her tune. The Treasury auctions $35 B in 5-year notes and data includes January new home sales. The MBA reported a 3.5% decline in mortgage applications for the week ended February 20 and continues to weaken despite low rates.



Stock Stories:

First Solar (FSLR) –renewable – The solar company had a mixed earnings report last night after the closing bell. Although guidance was lowered, the company had announced a partnership with another company for future investments yesterday, which had the shares up over 10% on Tuesday. We have a couple of analyst upgrades this morning and the stock is reacting positively as it is up over 2% ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications – Down 3.5%

9:00 am CT – New Home Sales

9:00 am CT – Fed’s Yellen Speaks

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 5-Year Note Auction Results



Notable Earnings:   

Wednesday – 2/25:

Before Market:  CPB, CHK, DLTR, LOW, SODA, TGT, TJX

After Market:  CRM, DRYS, LB, RIG, WDAY



Thursday – 2/26:

Before Market:  BUD, DDD, GOGO, KSS, RBS, SHLD, TWI, TD

After Market: CROX, GPS, HLF, JCP, ROST, SWN, YOKU

沁颍

2/26/2015

The Dow Industrials ($DJI) closed at another all-time high yesterday in another quiet session. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) and the small cap sector (RUT, IWM) also hit record levels yesterday afternoon before falling towards the close. The Nasdaq broke its 10-day winning streak as Apple (AAPL) shares were weak. This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are slightly higher as investors ignore any negative news.  The final day of testimony from Fed Chair Yellen yesterday did little to stop the Bulls but the exchanges were a little more heated with the House members. Option volatility was also muted on Wednesday as equities were mixed. There is plenty of data due today to sway stocks and hopefully we will see some additional movement. Comments this morning from noted Fed Hawk Bullard stated that they should remove the word ‘patient’ from their statement and have a clear path to a rate hike, which could also move stocks.



Global bonds are higher today and have been trending up this week. Many Euro-zone yields have dropped to new all-time lows after dovish Draghi comments late yesterday and ahead of the start of their QE. Bond gains comes despite some better European data and gains in equities. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 1.94%, still driven lower from Yellen's testimony. Today's highlight is the January CPI report where there is risk the y/y pace falls into negative territory. Also today is the January durable orders data, as well as weekly initial jobless claims and the FHFA home price index for December. The Treasury auctions $29 B in 7-year notes to finish up supply this week. Focus will then move to Friday’s Q4 GDP which will be reported and it is expected to be revised lower.



Stock Stories:

Starbucks (SBUX) –buzzing – The coffee giant got more price target upgrades over the last couple of days.  Comments from the CFO and optimism on growth has Wall Street pushing shares to additional all-time highs. The valuation is rising and the shares are up slightly ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – Weekly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT – Consumer Price Index

7:30 am CT – Durable Goods Orders

8:00 am CT – FHFA House Price Index

9:30 am CT – Natural gas Inventories

11:40 am CT – Fed’s Lockhart Speaks

12:00 pm CT – 7-Year Note Auction Results



Notable Earnings:   

Thursday – 2/26:

Before Market:  BUD, DDD, GOGO, KSS, RBS, SHLD, TWI, TD

After Market:  CROX, GPS, HLF, JCP, ROST, SWN, YOKU



Friday – 2/27:

Before Market:  ISIS, NRG

After Market: N/A

沁颍

2/27/2015

Stocks finished the day mixed yesterday and were led by the tech heavy Nasdaq (QQQ), which rallied on the back of Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOG/GOOGL) and Facebook (FB). This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are slightly lower ahead of a key update on Gross Domestic Product (GDP).  Investors will use the GDP data to see if the economy’s growth is still present. The number is expected to be revised as fourth quarter preliminary expectations have been brought down. Anything above 2% will most likely be positive for equities. Option volatility was also muted on Thursday as equities continue to chop in a tight range near all-time highs. Thursday’s data was again mixed but had little negative effect on U.S. Stocks.



Bonds are lower again today after a turn lower yesterday. The 10-year yield popped back over 2% on Thursday as Treasuries were under pressure into the close. There is more rhetoric in the Euro-Zone as there are expectations that Greece will need a third bailout. Germany continues to push the issue in the media and comments by the European economic leaders are not favorable to Greece. It will be interesting to see if stocks can hold their high levels into the weekend. Today's highlights besides the GDP data are the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index and Consumer Sentiment.  



Stock Stories:

Exxon Mobil (XOM) –Slipping on Oil – The energy company’s stock continues to fall as oil prices weaken.  Despite the dump in shares, we saw massive call buying in the option market, which may be signaling the thought of a near-term bottom in the stock. This morning, the shares are up slightly ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – GDP

8:45 am CT– Chicago PMI

9:00 am CT – Consumer Sentiment

9:00 am CT – Pending Home Sales Index

Fed’s Dudley Speaks

Fed’s Mester Speaks

Fed’s Fischer Speaks



Notable Earnings:   

Friday – 2/27:

Before Market:  ISIS, NRG

After Market:  N/A



Monday – 3/2:

Before Market:  AMBC, BID, SSYS

After Market: ARNA, CZR, MBI, MCP, MYL, SLXP

沁颍

March 1, 2015

We saw another slow week on Wall Street as stocks feel like they are topping out near all-time highs. Despite the muted moves this week, the Benchmark S&P 500 Index (SPX) notched its largest one-month gain since October 2011 by rallying 5.5% in February. The rallies were never massive but the grind higher was consistent for almost the entire month. The accommodative stance from Central Banks around the world had investors pouring into the riskier asset classes such as stocks. Volumes continued to be light and the daily moves only averaged less than 0.5% in either direction. Many are predicting a more volatile month in March but we will need geopolitical news and economic data to drive markets as earnings season is essentially over. Almost 90% of the S&P 500 stocks have reported quarterly results and just under 70% have beaten expectations compared with 74% at the same time last year. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) and the Blue Chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average’s ($DJI) were basically flat as were the tech-heavy Nasdaq (QQQ) and the small caps (RUT, IWM).



With equities trending near the flat line all week, Option volatility only fell slightly. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell another 6.7% and is approaching the multi-year support level near $12.  The ‘Fear Gauge’ should see some additional movement into March as investors may feel the all-time highs are due for a pull-back. The economy continues to grow but not consistently. The bright spot continues to be the consumer due in part to healthy optimism from declining inflation and energy prices. Geopolitical risks may increase also as Greece and the ‘cease fire’ in Ukraine seem to be coiling for a catalyst. Treasury yields fell this past week as the Dovish comments from Fed members put a small bid in Bonds. The 10-year yield fell to 2% and Fed-Speak continues to move bonds prices quickly. Oil futures (/CL) fell modestly this past week as supply and production remains at elevated levels.  Rig counts are falling but it has not boosted crude prices at all.



While the fourth quarter got a downgrade, current quarter growth for monthly data are mixed but net moderately positive. Meanwhile, the Fed confirmed that the first rate hike would be no sooner than June. The upcoming week is full of economic data and the all-important Jobs report comes out on Friday. Housing has been mixed but many are predicting a tough Spring selling season.  Traders will be watching news on manufacturing and Services this week also. Fed Chair Yellen is speaking again on Tuesday and there will be plenty of Fed-Speak on tap also.


Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

Monday:

A.M. – AMBC, BID, SSYS

P.M. –ARNA, CZR, MBI, MCP, MYL, SLXP



Tuesday:

A.M. – AZO, BBY, DKS, KATE, RST

P.M.– BOBE, SWHC



Wednesday:

A.M. –  ANF, AEO, PETM, REV, TSL

P.M. – DAR, VSLR



Thursday:

A.M. – CNQ, CIEN, COST, JOY, KR, SFE

P.M. – CKP, DMND, MMI, QIHU, SINA, TFM  



Friday:

A.M. –BIG, FL, SPLS



Economic Releases (3/2 – 3/6):

Monday:

7:30 am CT – Personal Income & Outlays

8:45 am CT– PMI Mfg. Index

9:00 am CT – ISM Mfg. Index

9:00 am CT – Construction Spending

                                                                                                                                                                              

Tuesday:

Auto Sales – All Day

7:15 pm CT – Fed’s Yellen Speaks

                                                                                                                                                                                                        

Wednesday:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

7:15 am CT – ADP Employment Report

8:00 am CT – Fed’s Evans Speaks

8:45 am CT – PMI Services Index

9:00 am CT – ISM Non Mfg. Index

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

12:00 pm CT –Fed’s George Speaks

12:00 pm CT –Fed’s Fisher Speaks

1:00 pm CT – Beige Book



Thursday:

7:30 am CT – Weekly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT – Productivity & Costs

9:00 am CT – Factory Orders

9:30 am CT – Natural gas Inventories

                                                                                                                                                                                                   

Friday:

7:30 am CT – February Jobs Report

7:30 am CT– International Trade

2:00 pm CT – Consumer Credit