GLD and Market correlation in Bear market +TLT (important too, not shown here)
1. 09/25/08, 10:30 am09/26, 10:00am, GLD up by 6% (reversing the trend -1%; net +7%/day flow in GLD) in 2 steps, but brought back to 2.3% level, showing uncertainty. SPX shed 11% on 09/29, Monday. Big panic even in MM.
2. 09/30/08 2:00pm-10/1 12:00pm, GLD up 4.5% in 3 steps (reversing trend -5.9%, net +10%/day flow), SPX then showed double top (MM regain control, close all long position, then begin short). And shed 4.4% on Oct 2. Wave 1 down.
3. 10/1/08 12:00pm-10/2 10:30am, GLD drop 7% in 3 steps, intrend move, net flow not significant only -4%/day (close all short position, begin long position), SPX continue down in 3 steps, SPX rallied 3.9% on 10/3 (then sold off), Wave 2 up correction.
4. 10/3. GLD net reverse +5.3%/day, wave 3 down leg after an extra wavelet
5. 10/6, Monday, GLD net reverse +10%/day (however, only for 2.5 hours ), , market staged a brief wave 4 up correction
6. 10/7, GLD no big movement, market opened high, then down. Wave 5 down begins.
7. 10/8, GLD double top, no big movement. Market fluctuated, continue down.
8. 10/9. GLD sold off in morning, shed 3.4% from top, (reversing net -6.9%/day, only half a day), not enough. Big panic in the afternoon. GLD spike up, made a real double top.
9. 10/10. GLD shed 10%, market retested bottom, then rally. Heavy vol.
10. 10/13, Monday, Market big rally. Light vol. GLD no surprise.
11. 10/14. GLD net reverse +5.4%, Market gap up to 0.618 correction point. Market down.
12. 10/15. Market big down. GLD up.
13. 10/16. Gold net change -7%/day. Market continue down to finish the 5th wavelet down leg to 0.618
position, and overshoot a little bit (Gold over sold too). Market rallied. |
发表于 2010-2-27 15:30
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发表于 2010-2-27 18:08
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