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标题: [闲谈] DRYS now, seekingalpha 文章 [打印本页]

作者: tianfangye 时间: 2017-4-13 13:08 标题: DRYS now, seekingalpha 文章

“DRYS, 三个月横盘” 最简单的傻瓜TA法都不能满足。

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https://seekingalpha.com/article/4062140-dryships-inc-reverse-split-dooms-equity-offering-now

Summary

DryShips declined 58% as of the April 11th close since announcing a 1:4 reverse split April 6th.

After the declaration of a $2.5 million dividend on April 11th and an attractive Newcastlemax time charter ("TC") on April 12th, the downward momentum was broken and the stock bounced 20+%.

With an April 12th closing equity market value of approximately $100 million, the bounce will be ephemeral if DryShips attempts to complete the remaining $188 million equity offering.

The Newcastlemax TC and the recent Sifnos revolver restructuring point to DRYS pursuing debt financing. If successful, the stock would likely experience a powerful rally.

DryShips Inc. (NASDAQ

RYS) was suffering from a massive hangover post a 1:4 reverse stock split ("Reverse Split"). The 56% decline in DRYS stock price from April 6th to April 11th hammered down its equity market value to a low of $80+ million. To counteract this decline, DRYS declared a $2.5 million dividend payable to shareholders with a May 1st record date (see below) after the close on April 11th.

DRYS followed the dividend declaration with an April 12th press release disclosing a 1-year time charter on a Newcastlemax vessel. DRYS stated the time charter would generate $7.1 million in gross revenue, equal to $19,450/day, most likely prior to a 5% brokerage fee. The TC is a departure from DRYS spot market strategy for its dry bulk fleet. A change in chartering strategy would certainly be a positive and it would help in the effort to raise debt financing. The stock rallied sharply into the close on the news.

The dividend and time charter announcements arrested the downward stock price trajectory, but the April 12th bounce may prove ephemeral if DRYS tries to cram the remaining $188 million of equity issuance under the recent Prospectus Supplement down the market's gullet. The last two weeks have clearly demonstrated there is a limited appetite for DRYS equity. If it chooses to force equity into the market, DRYS would remain in danger of falling below the minimum equity market value threshold to use an F-3 filing for the issuance of securities (read this primer on S-3s and F-3s).

作者: aimei 时间: 2017-4-17 14:49

NOT DARE TO TOUCH

作者: tianfangye 时间: 2017-4-17 23:34

下行股不要碰，等到局势扭转再说也来得及。
过去的YRCW，X, AKS,CLF, 还有煤ETF KOL是很好的例子，但是这都是MHP，若MQP谁有把握百战百胜呢？

现在做金油气ETF似乎好做些，是空是龙能否盈利全靠自己。

作者: knock 时间: 2017-4-18 01:03

pump drys非常可恨。看好这个sector我也只是做做nplp之类。

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